Bridgend
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 59% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 92%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridgend | 23.7% | 23.3% | 16.2% | 14.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+0.7 | 24.3%−1.0 | 1.3%+14.9 | 20.4%−5.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,831 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 72.2% |
Current member
Chris Elmore · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.8 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Elmore Elected | Labour | 16,516 | 39.9 |
| Caroline Jones | Reform UK | 7,921 | 19.1 |
| Anita Boateng | Conservative | 6,764 | 16.4 |
| Iolo Caudy | Plaid Cymru | 3,629 | 8.8 |
| Mark John | Other | 3,338 | 8.1 |
| Debra Cooper | Green | 1,760 | 4.3 |
| Claire Waller | Lib Dems | 1,446 | 3.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rhondda and Ogmore Reform UK, toss-up
- Aberafan Maesteg Labour, toss-up
- Vale of Glamorgan Conservative, toss-up
- Pontypridd Labour, toss-up
- Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Reform UK, toss-up
- Cardiff West Plaid Cymru, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated