Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 45% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | 26.5% | 26.0% | 25.3% | 7.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+3.5 | 1.3%+24.7 | 24.3%+1.1 | 20.4%−13.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,698 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 69.3% |
Current member
Gerald Jones · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Jones Elected | Labour | 15,791 | 44.8 |
| Gareth Thomas | Reform UK | 8,344 | 23.7 |
| Francis Whitefoot | Plaid Cymru | 4,768 | 13.5 |
| Amanda Jenner | Conservative | 2,687 | 7.6 |
| Jade Smith | Lib Dems | 1,276 | 3.6 |
| Peter Griffin | Green | 1,231 | 3.5 |
| Anthony Cole | Other | 531 | 1.5 |
| Lorezo De Gregori | Other | 375 | 1.1 |
| Bob Davenport | Other | 212 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pontypridd Labour, toss-up
- Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Labour, competitive
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Cardiff West Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Rhondda and Ogmore Reform UK, toss-up
- Cardiff North Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated