Swansea West
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 72% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 87%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea West | 24.6% | 22.7% | 20.3% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+0.3 | 23.1%−0.4 | 1.3%+19.0 | 10.4%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,849 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 54.0% |
Current member
Torsten Bell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torsten Bell Elected | Labour | 14,761 | 41.4 |
| Patrick Benham-Crosswell | Reform UK | 6,246 | 17.5 |
| Michael O'Carroll | Lib Dems | 4,367 | 12.3 |
| Gwyn Williams | Plaid Cymru | 4,105 | 11.5 |
| Tara-Jane Sutcliffe | Conservative | 3,536 | 9.9 |
| Peter Jones | Green | 2,305 | 6.5 |
| Gareth Bromhall | Other | 337 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Neath and Swansea East Reform UK, toss-up
- Llanelli Plaid Cymru, toss-up
- Aberafan Maesteg Labour, toss-up
- Gower Labour, toss-up
- Rhondda and Ogmore Reform UK, toss-up
- Bridgend Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated