Llanelli
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Plaid Cymru a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 78%.
Compared with the average
| Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llanelli | 33.1% | 29.8% | 15.6% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.3%+31.8 | 23.1%+6.8 | 24.3%−8.7 | 20.4%−11.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,816 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 70.8% |
Current member
Dame Nia Griffith · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 3.7 points.
Our current projection: Plaid Cymru ahead by 3.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nia Griffith Elected | Labour | 12,751 | 31.3 |
| Gareth Beer | Reform UK | 11,247 | 27.6 |
| Rhodri Davies | Plaid Cymru | 9,511 | 23.3 |
| Charlie Evans | Conservative | 4,275 | 10.5 |
| Chris Passmore | Lib Dems | 1,254 | 3.1 |
| Karen Laurence | Green | 1,106 | 2.7 |
| Stan Robinson | Other | 600 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gower Labour, toss-up
- Caerfyrddin Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Swansea West Labour, toss-up
- Neath and Swansea East Reform UK, toss-up
- Aberafan Maesteg Labour, toss-up
- Rhondda and Ogmore Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated