Caerfyrddin
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Plaid Cymru a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerfyrddin | 41.4% | 20.5% | 16.1% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.3%+40.1 | 23.1%−2.5 | 20.4%−4.4 | 24.3%−14.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,301 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 73.3% |
Current member
Ann Davies · Plaid Cymru
Previous election (2024)
Plaid Cymru won by 9.9 points.
Our current projection: Plaid Cymru ahead by 20.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ann Davies Elected | Plaid Cymru | 15,520 | 34.0 |
| Martha O'Neil | Labour | 10,985 | 24.1 |
| Simon Hart | Conservative | 8,825 | 19.4 |
| Bernard Holton | Reform UK | 6,944 | 15.2 |
| Nick Beckett | Lib Dems | 1,461 | 3.2 |
| Will Beasley | Green | 1,371 | 3.0 |
| Nancy Cole | Other | 282 | 0.6 |
| David Evans | Other | 216 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Llanelli Plaid Cymru, toss-up
- Gower Labour, toss-up
- Swansea West Labour, toss-up
- Neath and Swansea East Reform UK, toss-up
- Aberafan Maesteg Labour, toss-up
- Ceredigion Preseli Plaid Cymru, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated