Ceredigion Preseli
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Plaid Cymru a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceredigion Preseli | 50.2% | 16.6% | 11.2% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.3%+48.9 | 23.1%−6.4 | 10.3%+0.9 | 20.4%−11.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,099 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 73.7% |
Current member
Ben Lake · Plaid Cymru
Previous election (2024)
Plaid Cymru won by 31.9 points.
Our current projection: Plaid Cymru ahead by 33.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lake Elected | Plaid Cymru | 21,738 | 47.0 |
| Mark Williams | Lib Dems | 6,949 | 15.0 |
| Jackie Jones | Labour | 5,386 | 11.6 |
| Karl Pollard | Reform UK | 5,374 | 11.6 |
| Aled Thomas | Conservative | 4,763 | 10.3 |
| Tomos Barlow | Green | 1,864 | 4.0 |
| Taghrid Al-Mawed | Other | 228 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mid and South Pembrokeshire Conservative, toss-up
- Caerfyrddin Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Llanelli Plaid Cymru, toss-up
- Gower Labour, toss-up
- Dwyfor Meirionnydd Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Swansea West Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated