Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Plaid Cymru a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyfor Meirionnydd | 57.6% | 17.3% | 9.5% | 4.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.3%+56.3 | 23.1%−5.8 | 20.4%−10.9 | 10.4%−5.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,395 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 76.2% |
Current member
Liz Saville Roberts · Plaid Cymru
Previous election (2024)
Plaid Cymru won by 39.3 points.
Our current projection: Plaid Cymru ahead by 40.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liz Saville Roberts Elected | Plaid Cymru | 21,788 | 53.9 |
| Joanna Stallard | Labour | 5,912 | 14.6 |
| Lucy Murphy | Reform UK | 4,857 | 12.0 |
| Tomos Day | Conservative | 4,712 | 11.7 |
| Karl Drinkwater | Green | 1,448 | 3.6 |
| Phoebe Jenkins | Lib Dems | 1,381 | 3.4 |
| Joan Ginsberg | Other | 297 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr Reform UK, safe seat
- Ynys Môn Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Bangor Aberconwy Plaid Cymru, toss-up
- Caerfyrddin Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Lib Dems, toss-up
- Llanelli Plaid Cymru, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated