Ynys Môn
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Plaid Cymru a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Plaid Cymru | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ynys Môn | 35.6% | 25.6% | 17.9% | 10.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.3%+34.3 | 20.4%+5.2 | 23.1%−5.1 | 24.3%−13.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 69,049 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 77.4% |
Current member
Llinos Medi · Plaid Cymru
Previous election (2024)
Plaid Cymru won by 2.0 points.
Our current projection: Plaid Cymru ahead by 10.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Llinos Medi Elected | Plaid Cymru | 10,590 | 32.5 |
| Virginia Crosbie | Conservative | 9,953 | 30.5 |
| Ieuan Williams | Labour | 7,619 | 23.4 |
| Emmett Jenner | Reform UK | 3,223 | 9.9 |
| Martin Schwaller | Green | 604 | 1.9 |
| Leena Farhat | Lib Dems | 439 | 1.4 |
| Sir Grumpus L Shorticus | Other | 156 | 0.5 |
| Sam Wood | Other | 44 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bangor Aberconwy Plaid Cymru, toss-up
- Dwyfor Meirionnydd Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr Reform UK, safe seat
- Clwyd North Conservative, toss-up
- Clwyd East Conservative, toss-up
- Ceredigion Preseli Plaid Cymru, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated