Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 89%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid and South Pembrokeshire | 26.4% | 23.6% | 19.6% | 14.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+5.9 | 23.1%+0.6 | 24.3%−4.7 | 1.3%+13.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,878 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 74.7% |
Current member
Henry Tufnell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 4.0 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Tufnell Elected | Labour | 16,505 | 35.4 |
| Stephen Crabb | Conservative | 14,627 | 31.4 |
| Stuart Marchant | Reform UK | 7,828 | 16.8 |
| Cris Tomos | Plaid Cymru | 2,962 | 6.4 |
| Alistair Cameron | Lib Dems | 2,372 | 5.1 |
| James Purchase | Green | 1,654 | 3.6 |
| Vusi Siphika | Other | 427 | 0.9 |
| Hanna Andersen | Other | 254 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ceredigion Preseli Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Caerfyrddin Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Gower Labour, toss-up
- Llanelli Plaid Cymru, toss-up
- Swansea West Labour, toss-up
- Neath and Swansea East Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated