North Devon
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Devon | 37.4% | 25.2% | 23.6% | 7.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+27.1 | 23.1%+2.1 | 20.4%+3.1 | 10.4%−3.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,505 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 76.9% |
Current member
Ian Roome · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 13.1 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 12.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Roome Elected | Lib Dems | 21,820 | 42.4 |
| Selaine Saxby | Conservative | 15,076 | 29.3 |
| Nigel James | Reform UK | 8,137 | 15.8 |
| Nicky Edwards | Labour | 3,216 | 6.3 |
| Cas Lay | Green | 2,348 | 4.6 |
| Steve Cotten | Other | 820 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Central Devon Conservative, toss-up
- Gower Labour, toss-up
- Neath and Swansea East Reform UK, toss-up
- Swansea West Labour, toss-up
- Bridgend Reform UK, toss-up
- Tiverton and Minehead Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated