Central Devon
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 78%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Devon | 27.9% | 24.3% | 21.2% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+7.5 | 23.1%+1.2 | 24.3%−3.0 | 10.3%+3.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,481 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 50 |
| Employment rate | 82.3% |
Current member
Sir Mel Stride · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 0.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mel Stride Elected | Conservative | 16,831 | 31.5 |
| Ollie Pearson | Labour | 16,770 | 31.4 |
| Mark Wooding | Lib Dems | 8,232 | 15.4 |
| Jeffrey Leeks | Reform UK | 7,784 | 14.6 |
| Gill Westcott | Green | 3,338 | 6.3 |
| Arthur Price | Other | 477 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Exeter Labour, safe seat
- Newton Abbot Lib Dems, toss-up
- North Devon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Torbay Lib Dems, safe seat
- Exmouth and Exeter East Conservative, toss-up
- South Devon Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated