South Devon
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Devon | 40.5% | 25.6% | 22.3% | 6.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+30.2 | 20.4%+5.1 | 23.1%−0.8 | 10.4%−4.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 91,318 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 52 |
| Employment rate | 69.5% |
Current member
Caroline Voaden · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 14.5 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 14.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Voaden Elected | Lib Dems | 22,540 | 46.0 |
| Anthony Mangnall | Conservative | 15,413 | 31.5 |
| Michael Bagley | Reform UK | 6,363 | 13.0 |
| Daniel Steel | Labour | 3,066 | 6.3 |
| Robert Bagnall | Green | 1,497 | 3.1 |
| Becca Collings | Other | 125 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South West Devon Conservative, toss-up
- Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Labour, safe seat
- South East Cornwall Reform UK, toss-up
- Plymouth Moor View Reform UK, competitive
- Torridge and Tavistock Conservative, toss-up
- Torbay Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated