South West Devon
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 79%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South West Devon | 30.7% | 27.3% | 20.7% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.3 | 23.1%+4.2 | 24.3%−3.6 | 10.4%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,848 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 77.3% |
Current member
Rebecca Smith · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 4.0 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Smith Elected | Conservative | 17,916 | 34.3 |
| Sarah Allen | Labour | 15,804 | 30.2 |
| Stephen Horner | Reform UK | 9,361 | 17.9 |
| Julian Brazil | Lib Dems | 5,551 | 10.6 |
| Lauren McLay | Green | 2,925 | 5.6 |
| Alan Spencer | Other | 438 | 0.8 |
| Ben Davy | Other | 141 | 0.3 |
| Darryl Ingram | Other | 106 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Labour, safe seat
- South East Cornwall Reform UK, toss-up
- Plymouth Moor View Reform UK, competitive
- South Devon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Torridge and Tavistock Conservative, toss-up
- Central Devon Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated