South East Cornwall
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 78%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South East Cornwall | 28.5% | 24.9% | 20.2% | 14.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.4 | 20.4%+4.5 | 24.3%−4.1 | 10.3%+4.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,166 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 51 |
| Employment rate | 75.1% |
Current member
Anna Gelderd · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 3.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Gelderd Elected | Labour | 15,670 | 31.8 |
| Sheryll Murray | Conservative | 13,759 | 27.9 |
| Paul Wadley | Reform UK | 9,311 | 18.9 |
| Colin Martin | Lib Dems | 8,284 | 16.8 |
| Martin Corney | Green | 1,999 | 4.1 |
| Graham Cowdry | Other | 263 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Labour, safe seat
- Plymouth Moor View Reform UK, competitive
- South West Devon Conservative, toss-up
- Torridge and Tavistock Conservative, toss-up
- South Devon Lib Dems, safe seat
- St Austell and Newquay Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated