St Austell and Newquay
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 49%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Austell and Newquay | 30.3% | 25.0% | 22.9% | 9.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.3 | 20.4%+4.6 | 24.3%−1.3 | 10.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,170 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 69.9% |
Current member
Noah Law · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 5.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 5.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Law Elected | Labour | 15,958 | 34.2 |
| Steve Double | Conservative | 13,488 | 28.9 |
| Stephen Beal | Reform UK | 9,212 | 19.7 |
| Joanna Kenny | Lib Dems | 4,805 | 10.3 |
| Amanda Pennington | Green | 2,337 | 5.0 |
| Jay Latham | Other | 490 | 1.1 |
| Angie Rayner | Other | 442 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Truro and Falmouth Labour, safe seat
- North Cornwall Lib Dems, safe seat
- South East Cornwall Reform UK, toss-up
- Torridge and Tavistock Conservative, toss-up
- Plymouth Moor View Reform UK, competitive
- Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated