North Cornwall
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Cornwall | 41.4% | 24.3% | 22.8% | 5.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+31.1 | 23.1%+1.2 | 20.4%+2.4 | 10.4%−4.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,822 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 74.9% |
Current member
Ben Maguire · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 19.4 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 16.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Maguire Elected | Lib Dems | 24,094 | 47.0 |
| Scott Mann | Conservative | 14,137 | 27.6 |
| Rowland O'Connor | Reform UK | 8,444 | 16.5 |
| Robyn Harris | Labour | 2,958 | 5.8 |
| Lance Symonds | Green | 1,335 | 2.6 |
| Sarah Farrell | Other | 277 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- St Austell and Newquay Reform UK, toss-up
- Truro and Falmouth Labour, safe seat
- Camborne and Redruth Reform UK, toss-up
- Torridge and Tavistock Conservative, toss-up
- Plymouth Moor View Reform UK, competitive
- South East Cornwall Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated