Camborne and Redruth
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camborne and Redruth | 28.1% | 27.9% | 21.4% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+3.9 | 23.1%+4.8 | 20.4%+1.0 | 10.4%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,254 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 85.3% |
Current member
Perran Moon · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perran Moon Elected | Labour | 19,360 | 40.5 |
| Connor Donnithorne | Conservative | 11,554 | 24.2 |
| Roger Tarrant | Reform UK | 8,952 | 18.7 |
| Thalia Marrington | Lib Dems | 4,113 | 8.6 |
| Catherine Hayes | Green | 2,840 | 5.9 |
| Paul Holmes | Other | 624 | 1.3 |
| Robert Hawkins | Other | 342 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Truro and Falmouth Labour, safe seat
- North Cornwall Lib Dems, safe seat
- St Austell and Newquay Reform UK, toss-up
- St Ives Lib Dems, safe seat
- South East Cornwall Reform UK, toss-up
- Torridge and Tavistock Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated