St Ives
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Ives | 46.1% | 21.1% | 19.4% | 6.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+35.9 | 23.1%−2.0 | 20.4%−1.0 | 10.4%−3.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 89,172 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 51 |
| Employment rate | 83.2% |
Current member
Andrew George · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 28.7 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 24.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew George Elected | Lib Dems | 25,033 | 52.0 |
| Derek Thomas | Conservative | 11,247 | 23.4 |
| Giane Mortimer | Reform UK | 6,492 | 13.5 |
| Filson Ali | Labour | 2,788 | 5.8 |
| Ian Flindall | Green | 1,797 | 3.7 |
| Dave Laity | Other | 360 | 0.8 |
| Paul Nicholson | Other | 187 | 0.4 |
| Jason Saunders | Other | 111 | 0.2 |
| John Harris | Other | 91 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Camborne and Redruth Reform UK, toss-up
- Truro and Falmouth Labour, safe seat
- North Cornwall Lib Dems, safe seat
- St Austell and Newquay Reform UK, toss-up
- Mid and South Pembrokeshire Conservative, toss-up
- South East Cornwall Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated