Truro and Falmouth
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truro and Falmouth | 30.9% | 22.4% | 21.0% | 11.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+6.6 | 20.4%+1.9 | 23.1%−2.1 | 10.4%+1.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,110 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 77.2% |
Current member
Jayne Kirkham · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayne Kirkham Elected | Labour | 20,783 | 41.4 |
| Cherilyn Mackrory | Conservative | 12,632 | 25.1 |
| Ruth Gripper | Lib Dems | 6,552 | 13.0 |
| Steve Rubidge | Reform UK | 6,163 | 12.3 |
| Karen La Borde | Green | 3,470 | 6.9 |
| Peter Lawrence | Other | 498 | 1.0 |
| Peter White | Other | 166 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- St Austell and Newquay Reform UK, toss-up
- North Cornwall Lib Dems, safe seat
- Camborne and Redruth Reform UK, toss-up
- South East Cornwall Reform UK, toss-up
- Torridge and Tavistock Conservative, toss-up
- Plymouth Moor View Reform UK, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated