Plymouth Moor View
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 27%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth Moor View | 34.1% | 28.0% | 23.7% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+11.0 | 24.3%+3.8 | 20.4%+3.3 | 10.4%−2.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,876 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 84.7% |
Current member
Fred Thomas · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 6.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Thomas Elected | Labour | 17,665 | 41.2 |
| Johnny Mercer | Conservative | 12,061 | 28.1 |
| Shaun Hooper | Reform UK | 9,670 | 22.6 |
| Sarah Martin | Lib Dems | 1,766 | 4.1 |
| Georgia Nelson | Green | 1,694 | 4.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Torridge and Tavistock Conservative, toss-up
- Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Labour, safe seat
- South East Cornwall Reform UK, toss-up
- South West Devon Conservative, toss-up
- South Devon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Central Devon Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated