Torridge and Tavistock
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torridge and Tavistock | 28.1% | 26.2% | 20.6% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+7.7 | 23.1%+3.1 | 10.3%+10.3 | 24.3%−10.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,538 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 52 |
| Employment rate | 74.2% |
Current member
Sir Geoffrey Cox · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Cox Elected | Conservative | 16,049 | 31.6 |
| Phil Hutty | Lib Dems | 12,099 | 23.8 |
| Isabel Saxby | Labour | 10,765 | 21.2 |
| Andrew Jackson | Reform UK | 9,152 | 18.0 |
| Judy Maciejowska | Green | 2,350 | 4.6 |
| Alan Rayner | Other | 405 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Plymouth Moor View Reform UK, competitive
- Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Labour, safe seat
- South East Cornwall Reform UK, toss-up
- South West Devon Conservative, toss-up
- South Devon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Central Devon Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated