Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | 38.1% | 25.5% | 14.1% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+13.8 | 23.1%+2.4 | 20.4%−6.3 | 10.4%+1.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 109,322 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 65.5% |
Current member
Luke Pollard · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 31.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 12.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Pollard Elected | Labour | 20,795 | 49.4 |
| Peter Gold | Reform UK | 7,467 | 17.7 |
| Gareth Streeter | Conservative | 6,873 | 16.3 |
| Cam Hayward | Green | 3,186 | 7.6 |
| Holly Greenberry-Pullen | Lib Dems | 2,441 | 5.8 |
| Chaz Singh | Other | 619 | 1.5 |
| Guy Haywood | Other | 311 | 0.7 |
| Alex Moore | Other | 220 | 0.5 |
| Robert Hawkins | Other | 183 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South East Cornwall Reform UK, toss-up
- South West Devon Conservative, toss-up
- Plymouth Moor View Reform UK, competitive
- Torridge and Tavistock Conservative, toss-up
- South Devon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Central Devon Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated