Torbay
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torbay | 36.9% | 27.7% | 23.6% | 5.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+26.6 | 23.1%+4.7 | 20.4%+3.2 | 10.4%−4.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,303 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 77.7% |
Current member
Steve Darling · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 11.6 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 9.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Darling Elected | Lib Dems | 18,937 | 41.1 |
| Kevin Foster | Conservative | 13,588 | 29.5 |
| Gordon Scott | Reform UK | 8,660 | 18.8 |
| Chris Wongsosaputro | Labour | 3,276 | 7.1 |
| Charlie West | Green | 1,420 | 3.1 |
| Paul Moor | Other | 234 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newton Abbot Lib Dems, toss-up
- Exeter Labour, safe seat
- Exmouth and Exeter East Conservative, toss-up
- South Devon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Central Devon Conservative, toss-up
- Honiton and Sidmouth Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated