Exeter
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter | 34.4% | 21.0% | 19.3% | 13.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.2 | 23.1%−2.0 | 10.4%+8.9 | 20.4%−7.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,747 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 33 |
| Employment rate | 71.6% |
Current member
Steve Race · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 29.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 13.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Race Elected | Labour | 18,225 | 45.3 |
| Tessa Tucker | Conservative | 6,288 | 15.6 |
| Andrew Bell | Green | 5,907 | 14.7 |
| Lee Bunker | Reform UK | 4,914 | 12.2 |
| Will Aczel | Lib Dems | 4,201 | 10.5 |
| Wiliam Poulter | Other | 466 | 1.2 |
| Robert Spain | Other | 194 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newton Abbot Lib Dems, toss-up
- Exmouth and Exeter East Conservative, toss-up
- Central Devon Conservative, toss-up
- Torbay Lib Dems, safe seat
- Honiton and Sidmouth Lib Dems, safe seat
- Tiverton and Minehead Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated