Newton Abbot
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 90%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newton Abbot | 29.4% | 26.2% | 22.6% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+19.2 | 23.1%+3.2 | 20.4%+2.2 | 24.3%−15.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,888 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 80.9% |
Current member
Martin Wrigley · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 4.7 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Wrigley Elected | Lib Dems | 15,201 | 31.7 |
| Anne Marie Morris | Conservative | 12,955 | 27.0 |
| Christopher Hilditch | Reform UK | 8,494 | 17.7 |
| Jacob Cousens | Labour | 7,115 | 14.8 |
| Pauline Wynter | Green | 2,083 | 4.3 |
| Liam Mullone | Other | 1,924 | 4.0 |
| Andre Sabine | Other | 116 | 0.2 |
| Annaliese Cude | Other | 104 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Torbay Lib Dems, safe seat
- Exeter Labour, safe seat
- Central Devon Conservative, toss-up
- Exmouth and Exeter East Conservative, toss-up
- South Devon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Honiton and Sidmouth Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated