Exmouth and Exeter East
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 79%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exmouth and Exeter East | 26.2% | 22.5% | 20.1% | 18.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+5.8 | 23.1%−0.5 | 24.3%−4.1 | 10.3%+8.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,940 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 79.7% |
Current member
David Reed · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 0.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Reed Elected | Conservative | 14,728 | 28.7 |
| Helen Dallimore | Labour | 14,607 | 28.5 |
| Paul Arnott | Lib Dems | 11,387 | 22.2 |
| Garry Sutherland | Reform UK | 7,085 | 13.8 |
| Olly Davey | Green | 2,331 | 4.5 |
| Daniel Wilson | Other | 590 | 1.1 |
| Peter Faithfull | Other | 454 | 0.9 |
| Mark Baldwin | Other | 134 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Exeter Labour, safe seat
- Honiton and Sidmouth Lib Dems, safe seat
- Newton Abbot Lib Dems, toss-up
- Torbay Lib Dems, safe seat
- Tiverton and Minehead Lib Dems, safe seat
- Taunton and Wellington Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated