Tiverton and Minehead
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiverton and Minehead | 34.0% | 25.9% | 25.7% | 7.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+23.7 | 20.4%+5.5 | 23.1%+2.7 | 10.4%−2.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,152 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 51 |
| Employment rate | 85.3% |
Current member
Rachel Gilmour · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 7.4 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 7.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Gilmour Elected | Lib Dems | 18,326 | 38.6 |
| Ian Liddell-Grainger | Conservative | 14,819 | 31.2 |
| Fred Keen | Reform UK | 7,787 | 16.4 |
| Jonathan Barter | Labour | 4,325 | 9.1 |
| Laura Buchanan | Green | 2,234 | 4.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Taunton and Wellington Lib Dems, safe seat
- Honiton and Sidmouth Lib Dems, safe seat
- Bridgwater Reform UK, toss-up
- Exeter Labour, safe seat
- Vale of Glamorgan Conservative, toss-up
- Weston-super-Mare Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated