Weston-super-Mare
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 86%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weston-super-Mare | 28.7% | 25.5% | 24.4% | 10.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.7 | 24.3%+1.2 | 20.4%+3.9 | 10.4%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,756 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 77.9% |
Current member
Dan Aldridge · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.4 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Aldridge Elected | Labour | 16,310 | 38.5 |
| John Penrose | Conservative | 11,901 | 28.1 |
| Richard Pearse | Reform UK | 7,735 | 18.3 |
| Patrick Keating | Lib Dems | 3,756 | 8.9 |
| Thomas Daw | Green | 2,688 | 6.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cardiff South and Penarth Labour, competitive
- Cardiff East Labour, competitive
- Bridgwater Reform UK, toss-up
- Cardiff North Labour, safe seat
- Newport West and Islwyn Labour, toss-up
- Cardiff West Plaid Cymru, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated