Liverpool Wavertree
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Wavertree | 48.1% | 20.2% | 15.4% | 5.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+23.9 | 10.4%+9.8 | 23.1%−7.6 | 10.3%−4.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,388 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 33 |
| Employment rate | 78.7% |
Current member
Paula Barker · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 41.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 28.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paula Barker Elected | Labour | 23,077 | 58.0 |
| Tom Crone | Green | 6,773 | 17.0 |
| Adam Heatherington | Reform UK | 3,454 | 8.7 |
| Rob McAllister-Bell | Lib Dems | 2,759 | 6.9 |
| Charlotte Eagar | Conservative | 1,887 | 4.7 |
| Ann San | Other | 1,191 | 3.0 |
| Mohamed El Gadhy | Other | 566 | 1.4 |
| Joe Owens | Other | 108 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Liverpool West Derby Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Riverside Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Walton Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Garston Labour, safe seat
- Knowsley Labour, safe seat
- Bootle Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated