St Helens South and Whiston
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Other | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Helens South and Whiston | 39.2% | 28.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+14.9 | 23.1%+5.2 | 5.0%+4.8 | 10.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,584 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 72.9% |
Current member
Ms Marie Rimmer · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 31.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 10.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie Rimmer Elected | Labour | 18,919 | 49.7 |
| Raymond Peters | Reform UK | 6,974 | 18.3 |
| James Tasker | Other | 4,244 | 11.2 |
| Emma Ellison | Conservative | 3,057 | 8.0 |
| Terence Price | Green | 2,642 | 6.9 |
| Brian Spencer | Lib Dems | 2,199 | 5.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- St Helens North Labour, safe seat
- Widnes and Halewood Labour, safe seat
- Knowsley Labour, safe seat
- Makerfield Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Garston Labour, safe seat
- Warrington North Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated