Warrington North
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 71%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrington North | 35.8% | 31.8% | 14.5% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.5 | 23.1%+8.7 | 20.4%−5.9 | 10.4%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,005 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 72.6% |
Current member
Charlotte Nichols · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 4.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Nichols Elected | Labour | 18,730 | 46.8 |
| Trevor Nicholls | Reform UK | 9,540 | 23.8 |
| Yasmin Al-Atroshi | Conservative | 6,486 | 16.2 |
| David Crowther | Lib Dems | 2,737 | 6.8 |
| Hannah Spencer | Green | 1,889 | 4.7 |
| Maddison Wheeldon | Other | 659 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Warrington South Labour, safe seat
- Leigh and Atherton Labour, toss-up
- Makerfield Labour, safe seat
- St Helens North Labour, safe seat
- Wigan Labour, toss-up
- St Helens South and Whiston Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated