Leigh and Atherton
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 88%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leigh and Atherton | 37.3% | 34.8% | 13.8% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+13.0 | 23.1%+11.8 | 20.4%−6.7 | 10.4%−2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,496 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 68.2% |
Current member
Jo Platt · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Platt Elected | Labour | 19,971 | 48.5 |
| George Woodward | Reform UK | 11,090 | 26.9 |
| Michael Winstanley | Conservative | 6,483 | 15.8 |
| Amelia Jones | Green | 1,653 | 4.0 |
| Stuart Thomas | Lib Dems | 1,597 | 3.9 |
| Craig Buckley | Other | 376 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bolton West Labour, toss-up
- Makerfield Labour, safe seat
- Warrington North Labour, toss-up
- Wigan Labour, toss-up
- Worsley and Eccles Labour, safe seat
- Warrington South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated