Bolton West
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 50% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton West | 28.7% | 28.3% | 24.4% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+4.4 | 23.1%+5.3 | 20.4%+4.0 | 10.4%+1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,084 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 79.6% |
Current member
Phil Brickell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 11.1 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Brickell Elected | Labour | 17,363 | 38.9 |
| Chris Green | Conservative | 12,418 | 27.8 |
| Dylan Evans | Reform UK | 8,517 | 19.1 |
| Vicki Attenborough | Green | 4,132 | 9.3 |
| Donald Mcintosh | Lib Dems | 1,966 | 4.4 |
| Patrick McGrath | Other | 202 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leigh and Atherton Labour, toss-up
- Bolton North East Reform UK, toss-up
- Bolton South and Walkden Labour, toss-up
- Makerfield Labour, safe seat
- Wigan Labour, toss-up
- Worsley and Eccles Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated