Bolton North East
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 83% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton North East | 30.5% | 28.5% | 18.6% | 13.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.5 | 24.3%+4.3 | 20.4%−1.8 | 10.4%+2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 115,119 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 68.3% |
Current member
Kirith Entwistle · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirith Entwistle Elected | Labour | 16,166 | 37.3 |
| Adele Warren | Conservative | 9,513 | 21.9 |
| Trevor Jones | Reform UK | 9,428 | 21.7 |
| Hanif Alli | Green | 4,683 | 10.8 |
| Rebecca Forrest | Lib Dems | 1,507 | 3.5 |
| Syeda Kazmi | Other | 1,463 | 3.4 |
| Kevin Allsop | Other | 345 | 0.8 |
| John Partington | Other | 254 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bolton South and Walkden Labour, toss-up
- Bury North Labour, safe seat
- Bolton West Labour, toss-up
- Rossendale and Darwen Reform UK, toss-up
- Worsley and Eccles Labour, safe seat
- Bury South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated