Bolton South and Walkden
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 53% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Other | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton South and Walkden | 32.1% | 31.6% | 11.5% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+7.8 | 23.1%+8.5 | 5.0%+6.6 | 10.4%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 125,207 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 34 |
| Employment rate | 61.4% |
Current member
Yasmin Qureshi · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yasmin Qureshi Elected | Labour | 15,093 | 40.9 |
| Julie Pattison | Reform UK | 8,350 | 22.6 |
| Jack Khan | Other | 4,673 | 12.7 |
| Mohammed Afzal | Conservative | 4,170 | 11.3 |
| Philip Kochitty | Green | 2,827 | 7.7 |
| Gemma Bowker | Lib Dems | 1,384 | 3.8 |
| Abraham Halliwell | Other | 433 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bolton North East Reform UK, toss-up
- Worsley and Eccles Labour, safe seat
- Bury North Labour, safe seat
- Salford Labour, safe seat
- Bury South Labour, safe seat
- Bolton West Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated