Salford
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford | 42.2% | 22.3% | 17.1% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+18.0 | 23.1%−0.7 | 10.4%+6.7 | 20.4%−11.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 126,801 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 30 |
| Employment rate | 74.2% |
Current member
Rebecca Long Bailey · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 38.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 19.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Long-Bailey Elected | Labour | 21,132 | 53.2 |
| Keith Whalley | Reform UK | 6,031 | 15.2 |
| Wendy Olsen | Green | 5,188 | 13.1 |
| Hilary Scott | Conservative | 3,583 | 9.0 |
| Jake Austin | Lib Dems | 2,752 | 6.9 |
| Mustafa Abdullah | Other | 791 | 2.0 |
| Stephen Lewthwaite | Other | 227 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bury South Labour, safe seat
- Stretford and Urmston Labour, safe seat
- Manchester Rusholme Labour, safe seat
- Bury North Labour, safe seat
- Worsley and Eccles Labour, safe seat
- Bolton South and Walkden Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated