Stretford and Urmston
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stretford and Urmston | 40.5% | 19.5% | 13.2% | 13.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+16.3 | 23.1%−3.5 | 10.4%+2.8 | 20.4%−7.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,594 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 81.5% |
Current member
Andrew Western · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 35.1 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 21.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Western Elected | Labour | 22,642 | 49.2 |
| Mark Cornes | Conservative | 6,492 | 14.1 |
| Charlotte Faulkner | Reform UK | 5,485 | 11.9 |
| Khalila Chaudry | Other | 4,461 | 9.7 |
| Daniel Jerrome | Green | 4,398 | 9.6 |
| Mark Clayton | Lib Dems | 2,216 | 4.8 |
| Jim Newell | Other | 308 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Altrincham and Sale West Labour, toss-up
- Salford Labour, safe seat
- Wythenshawe and Sale East Labour, safe seat
- Worsley and Eccles Labour, safe seat
- Manchester Withington Labour, safe seat
- Manchester Rusholme Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated