Altrincham and Sale West
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham and Sale West | 31.5% | 29.8% | 18.1% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+7.3 | 20.4%+9.4 | 23.1%−5.0 | 10.4%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,272 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 73.6% |
Current member
Mr Connor Rand · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.1 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Rand Elected | Labour | 20,798 | 40.4 |
| Oliver Carroll | Conservative | 16,624 | 32.3 |
| Paul Swansborough | Reform UK | 4,961 | 9.6 |
| Jane Brophy | Lib Dems | 4,727 | 9.2 |
| Geraldine Coggins | Green | 3,699 | 7.2 |
| Faisal Kabir | Other | 643 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stretford and Urmston Labour, safe seat
- Wythenshawe and Sale East Labour, safe seat
- Worsley and Eccles Labour, safe seat
- Tatton Conservative, safe seat
- Manchester Withington Labour, safe seat
- Salford Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated