Manchester Withington
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Withington | 45.8% | 23.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+21.6 | 10.4%+12.6 | 23.1%−12.8 | 10.3%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,705 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 32 |
| Employment rate | 81.9% |
Current member
Jeff Smith · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 33.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 22.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Smith Elected | Labour | 22,066 | 52.9 |
| Sam Easterby-Smith | Green | 8,084 | 19.4 |
| Richard Kilpatrick | Lib Dems | 5,412 | 13.0 |
| Sarah Garcia De Bustos | Conservative | 2,280 | 5.5 |
| Kaine Williams | Reform UK | 1,961 | 4.7 |
| Lizzie Greenwood | Other | 1,774 | 4.3 |
| Wendy Andrew | Other | 154 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Manchester Rusholme Labour, safe seat
- Wythenshawe and Sale East Labour, safe seat
- Stockport Labour, safe seat
- Cheadle Lib Dems, safe seat
- Manchester Central Labour, safe seat
- Stretford and Urmston Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated