Manchester Central
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Central | 41.2% | 19.7% | 18.9% | 7.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+17.0 | 10.4%+9.3 | 23.1%−4.1 | 20.4%−13.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 129,176 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 29 |
| Employment rate | 77.3% |
Current member
Lucy Powell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 34.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 21.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Powell Elected | Labour | 20,184 | 50.8 |
| Ekua Bayunu | Green | 6,387 | 16.1 |
| David Brown | Reform UK | 4,760 | 12.0 |
| Chris Northwood | Lib Dems | 3,051 | 7.7 |
| Scott Smith | Conservative | 2,823 | 7.1 |
| Parham Hashemi | Other | 1,888 | 4.8 |
| Sebastian Moore | Other | 240 | 0.6 |
| Sabeena Khan | Other | 202 | 0.5 |
| Caitriona Rylance | Other | 131 | 0.3 |
| Albati Kalonda | Other | 59 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Blackley and Middleton South Labour, safe seat
- Manchester Rusholme Labour, safe seat
- Gorton and Denton Labour, safe seat
- Stockport Labour, safe seat
- Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Reform UK, toss-up
- Ashton-under-Lyne Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated