Blackley and Middleton South
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackley and Middleton South | 42.2% | 28.7% | 12.6% | 9.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+18.0 | 23.1%+5.6 | 10.4%+2.2 | 20.4%−11.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,799 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 62.8% |
Current member
Graham Stringer · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 32.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 13.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Stringer Elected | Labour | 16,864 | 53.8 |
| Alison Devine | Reform UK | 6,614 | 21.1 |
| Dylan Lewis-Creser | Green | 3,197 | 10.2 |
| Iftikhar Ahmed | Conservative | 3,073 | 9.8 |
| Iain Donaldson | Lib Dems | 1,592 | 5.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Manchester Central Labour, safe seat
- Heywood and Middleton North Reform UK, toss-up
- Manchester Rusholme Labour, safe seat
- Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Reform UK, toss-up
- Bury South Labour, safe seat
- Salford Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated