Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 59% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | 27.4% | 27.2% | 22.2% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+4.4 | 24.3%+3.0 | 5.0%+17.2 | 20.4%−9.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 113,083 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 65.9% |
Current member
Jim McMahon · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 5.0 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim McMahon Elected | Labour | 13,232 | 34.3 |
| Zaffar Iqbal | Other | 8,256 | 21.4 |
| David Silbiger | Reform UK | 6,848 | 17.8 |
| Horatio Lovering | Conservative | 4,066 | 10.5 |
| Raja Miah | Other | 2,470 | 6.4 |
| Samsuzzaman Syed | Green | 1,857 | 4.8 |
| Hannah Kitching | Lib Dems | 1,271 | 3.3 |
| Tony Wilson | Other | 573 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ashton-under-Lyne Labour, toss-up
- Blackley and Middleton South Labour, safe seat
- Manchester Central Labour, safe seat
- Oldham East and Saddleworth Reform UK, toss-up
- Rochdale Labour, toss-up
- Gorton and Denton Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated