Oldham East and Saddleworth
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 70% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham East and Saddleworth | 28.1% | 27.3% | 15.4% | 14.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.0 | 24.3%+3.0 | 20.4%−5.1 | 5.0%+9.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 109,355 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 60.9% |
Current member
Debbie Abrahams · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debbie Abrahams Elected | Labour | 14,091 | 35.2 |
| Jacob Barden | Reform UK | 7,734 | 19.3 |
| Tom Fish | Conservative | 6,838 | 17.1 |
| Shanaz Saddique | Other | 4,647 | 11.6 |
| Sam Al-Hamdani | Lib Dems | 3,386 | 8.5 |
| Fesl Reza Khan | Green | 1,490 | 3.7 |
| Paul Errock | Other | 1,362 | 3.4 |
| Nick Buckley | Other | 517 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stalybridge and Hyde Labour, toss-up
- Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Reform UK, toss-up
- Rochdale Labour, toss-up
- Ashton-under-Lyne Labour, toss-up
- Gorton and Denton Labour, safe seat
- Hazel Grove Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated