Hazel Grove
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hazel Grove | 33.9% | 24.2% | 17.0% | 16.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+23.6 | 23.1%+1.2 | 20.4%−3.5 | 24.3%−8.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,425 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 79.5% |
Current member
Lisa Smart · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 14.1 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 9.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Smart Elected | Lib Dems | 17,328 | 37.7 |
| Claire Vibert | Labour | 10,828 | 23.5 |
| Paul Athans | Conservative | 9,011 | 19.6 |
| John Kelly | Reform UK | 6,955 | 15.1 |
| Graham Reid | Green | 1,763 | 3.8 |
| Tim O'Rourke | Other | 113 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stalybridge and Hyde Labour, toss-up
- Gorton and Denton Labour, safe seat
- Ashton-under-Lyne Labour, toss-up
- Stockport Labour, safe seat
- Cheadle Lib Dems, safe seat
- Manchester Central Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated