Stockport
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport | 41.6% | 21.9% | 13.8% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+17.4 | 23.1%−1.2 | 10.4%+3.4 | 20.4%−9.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,286 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 72.0% |
Current member
Navendu Mishra · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 35.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 19.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navendu Mishra Elected | Labour | 21,787 | 49.9 |
| Lynn Schofield | Reform UK | 6,517 | 14.9 |
| Oliver Johnstone | Conservative | 4,967 | 11.4 |
| Helena Mellish | Green | 4,865 | 11.1 |
| Wendy Meikle | Lib Dems | 3,724 | 8.5 |
| Ayesha Khan | Other | 1,630 | 3.7 |
| Ashley Walker | Other | 193 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gorton and Denton Labour, safe seat
- Cheadle Lib Dems, safe seat
- Manchester Rusholme Labour, safe seat
- Manchester Central Labour, safe seat
- Manchester Withington Labour, safe seat
- Ashton-under-Lyne Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated