Gorton and Denton
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorton and Denton | 34.7% | 26.0% | 23.3% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.5 | 10.4%+15.6 | 23.1%+0.2 | 20.4%−12.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 115,037 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 68.4% |
Current member
Hannah Spencer · Green
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 36.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Gwynne Elected | Labour | 18,555 | 50.7 |
| Lee Moffitt | Reform UK | 5,142 | 14.1 |
| Amanda Gardner | Green | 4,810 | 13.2 |
| Amir Burney | Other | 3,766 | 10.3 |
| Ruth Welsh | Conservative | 2,888 | 7.9 |
| John Reid | Lib Dems | 1,399 | 3.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stockport Labour, safe seat
- Ashton-under-Lyne Labour, toss-up
- Manchester Central Labour, safe seat
- Hazel Grove Lib Dems, safe seat
- Manchester Rusholme Labour, safe seat
- Cheadle Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated