Cheadle
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheadle | 41.5% | 20.0% | 17.9% | 11.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+31.2 | 20.4%−0.4 | 23.1%−5.2 | 24.3%−12.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,396 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 76.2% |
Current member
Tom Morrison · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 24.1 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 21.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Morrison Elected | Lib Dems | 23,681 | 46.7 |
| Mary Robinson | Conservative | 11,446 | 22.6 |
| Kelly Fowler | Labour | 7,909 | 15.6 |
| Stephen Speakman | Reform UK | 5,149 | 10.2 |
| Alexander Drury | Green | 1,630 | 3.2 |
| Tanya Manzoor | Other | 811 | 1.6 |
| Marcus Farmer | Other | 105 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stockport Labour, safe seat
- Gorton and Denton Labour, safe seat
- Manchester Withington Labour, safe seat
- Wythenshawe and Sale East Labour, safe seat
- Manchester Rusholme Labour, safe seat
- Hazel Grove Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated