Manchester Rusholme
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Rusholme | 39.7% | 30.9% | 11.7% | 10.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+15.4 | 10.4%+20.5 | 23.1%−11.4 | 5.0%+5.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 115,981 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 25 |
| Employment rate | 68.1% |
Current member
Afzal Khan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 28.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afzal Khan Elected | Labour | 15,054 | 51.8 |
| Thirza Asanga-Rae | Green | 6,819 | 23.5 |
| Mohhamed Bilal | Other | 3,660 | 12.6 |
| Alexandra Marsanu | Conservative | 1,678 | 5.8 |
| Joel McGuigan | Reform UK | 1,313 | 4.5 |
| Faraz Bhatti | Other | 342 | 1.2 |
| Peter Clifford | Other | 167 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Manchester Withington Labour, safe seat
- Manchester Central Labour, safe seat
- Stockport Labour, safe seat
- Blackley and Middleton South Labour, safe seat
- Wythenshawe and Sale East Labour, safe seat
- Gorton and Denton Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated