Ashton-under-Lyne
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 83% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton-under-Lyne | 34.4% | 32.5% | 11.4% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.1 | 23.1%+9.4 | 20.4%−9.0 | 10.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,866 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 78.7% |
Current member
Angela Rayner · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 19.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner Elected | Labour | 15,575 | 43.9 |
| Robert Barrowcliffe | Reform UK | 8,784 | 24.8 |
| Lizzie Hacking | Conservative | 4,375 | 12.3 |
| Aroma Hassan | Other | 2,835 | 8.0 |
| Lee Huntbach | Green | 2,481 | 7.0 |
| Dominic Hardwick | Lib Dems | 1,411 | 4.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gorton and Denton Labour, safe seat
- Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Reform UK, toss-up
- Stalybridge and Hyde Labour, toss-up
- Hazel Grove Lib Dems, safe seat
- Manchester Central Labour, safe seat
- Stockport Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated