Stalybridge and Hyde
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 55%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stalybridge and Hyde | 34.4% | 29.3% | 15.9% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.1 | 23.1%+6.2 | 20.4%−4.5 | 10.4%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,943 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 73.8% |
Current member
Jonathan Reynolds · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 22.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 5.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Reynolds Elected | Labour | 16,320 | 43.8 |
| Barbara Kaya | Reform UK | 7,781 | 20.9 |
| Phil Chadwick | Conservative | 6,872 | 18.5 |
| Robert Hodgetts-Haley | Green | 2,745 | 7.4 |
| Audel Shirin | Other | 1,227 | 3.3 |
| Ian Owen | Other | 1,214 | 3.3 |
| Kamala Kugan | Lib Dems | 1,080 | 2.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ashton-under-Lyne Labour, toss-up
- Hazel Grove Lib Dems, safe seat
- Oldham East and Saddleworth Reform UK, toss-up
- Gorton and Denton Labour, safe seat
- Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Reform UK, toss-up
- Stockport Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated